MAKATI CITY – The Philippine economy is expected to return to its 6 to 7-percent growth trajectory in 2022 after nearly two years of grappling with the pandemic despite the threat of the Omicron variant, according to the investment banking arm of the Metrobank Group.

 

This as the World Bank last week lowered its global economic growth forecast to 4.1 percent for this year, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast.
Next year, the global economy is projected to grow 3.2 percent, revised upward 0.1 percentage point, the bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The global economy is slowing down amid threats from coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) variants and a rise in inflation, debt, and income inequality that could endanger the recovery in emerging and developing economies, it said.
The World Bank said the pandemic will likely continue to disrupt economic activity in the near term with the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.
The notable deceleration in major economies, including the US and China, will weigh on external demand in emerging and developing economies, it warned.
The World Bank projected growth in advanced economies would decline from 5 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent this year, and 2.3 percent in 2023 while emerging and developing economies are expected to grow 4.6 percent in 2022 and 4.4 percent next year.
The bank also cut its growth projection for the world’s largest two economies, as the US is expected to grow 3.7 percent this year and China, 5.1 percent.

First Metro Investment Corporation (FMIC) said this year’s economic growth will be driven by sustained domestic demand, easing inflation, election expenditures, and accelerated government spending on infrastructure projects.

“Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, and Omicron sparking the third wave of infections, we are still optimistic that Philippine growth will further accelerate and get back on its trajectory of 6-7 percent in 2022,” FMIC president Jose Patricio Dumlao said in a virtual briefing.

Dumlao said the economy registered a 4.9-percent growth in the first three quarters of 2021 and the growth momentum likely spilled over in the fourth quarter given further economic reopening and easing mobility restrictions.

He added business and consumer confidence are also cautiously positive given wider availability of vaccines and relaxation of lockdowns, quarantine measures, and mobility restrictions.

University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) economist Dr. Victor Abola said the 6 to 7 percent gross domestic product (GDP) projection this year will be led by the industry sector –both construction and manufacturing.

Abola said services will still be the lagging sector as the pandemic measures hit hotels and restaurants.

“The Philippine situation is that there is recovery but still on the way to reach the pre-pandemic levels,” he said.

The country’s GDP posted a -9.5 percent full-year growth rate in 2020 compared to its 5.9 percent pre-pandemic performance in 2019.

Abola said the business process outsourcing (BPO) is a major contributor to the resiliency of the economy amid the pandemic.

“And it’s not the same as usual call centers, etc. You can see there are new, emerging segments and that is what companies are focusing on,” he said, citing insurance, life sciences, healthcare, and data analytics, among others.

Aside from BPO revenues, FMIC chairman Francisco Sebastian said the overseas Filipino workers (OFW) remittances are boosting the economy.

“These two things are not as sexy as other things like technology and telecoms… This is what is holding us up. OFW remittances continue to grow,” he said.